The news surrounding this election cycle has mainly focused on whether or not Republicans will win enough seats to capture a majority in the U.S. House and U.S. Senate.  However, with several contested gubernatorial races this November, these might be the races that matter most.  Starting in 2011, state legislatures will begin drawing new congressional districts based on the 2010 census and these newly-elected governors will play a significant role in how these congressional boundaries are drawn.  With important political states like Texas and Florida projected to gain seats in Congress, the outcomes of these races will have consequences well beyond the term of the governor elected in 2010.

Additionally, the outcomes of these races will have an impact on the 2012 presidential election. As the first three presidential nominating contests in 2012, Iowa, South Carolina, and New Hampshire are significant states for Republicans seeking the nomination. Republican presidential hopefuls former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee were heavily involved in influencing the outcome of the gubernatorial primaries in Iowa and South Carolina this year.  And according to recent polling, the gubernatorial battle in New Hampshire has become very competitive – giving Republicans a shot at winning this race.  Simply stated, Republicans want Republicans occupying these governor’s mansions in 2012.

In 2009, the victories of now-Governors Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie set the tone of the 2010 elections.  Winning very competitive races in Virginia and New Jersey, respectively, they gave Republicans a renewed sense of optimism after devastating losses the previous November. Both governors should also be credited with sparking the national debate our country is currently having over spending and tax policies.  Should Republicans occupy the governor’s mansions in 30 states after November, as some analysts have projected, they will have clearly set the tone of the 2012 election--- and don’t be too surprised if it is a successful Republican governor who wins the Republican nomination for president in 2012.

Below is a quick overview on which 2010 gubernatorial races will most impact Congressional redistricting, 2012 presidential elections, and the national political debate:

Arizona – Earlier this year, Governor Jan Brewer (R) signed into law a tough immigration bill that has reignited a national debate over immigration policy.  Several governors from other states hope to enact similar laws; meanwhile, the Obama Administration has stepped in to stop implementation of the Arizona law. Arizona is expected to gain one seat in Congress.  Governor Brewer is currently projected to win reelection and leads by 18 percentage points in the latest Real Clear Politics average.

Nevada – Nevada has been hit hard by the downturn in the economy.  With the highest unemployment rate in the nation and record foreclosures, decisions made by the next governor could very well set the debate on how to tackle these issues nationally.  Nevada is expected to gain one seat in Congress.  Republican Brian Sandoval is currently projected to win this race and leads by 14 percentage points in the latest Real Clear Politics average.

Texas – Texas is expected to gain up to 4 congressional seats in 2011 – the most in the nation.  With the growth of the Hispanic population in the state, some believe the state could become more Democratic.  The Texas state legislature is currently controlled by Republicans; therefore, an upset by former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) could significantly impact how these new districts are drawn.  Governor Rick Perry leads by 9.3 percentage points in the latest Real Clear Politics average.

Florida/Ohio/Pennsylvania – After the closely watched 2000 presidential election between Vice President Al Gore and Governor George W. Bush, Florida has become extremely important to any candidate running for president, along with Ohio and Pennsylvania.  Campaign visits to these states are much more productive when the chief executive of that states hails from your own political party. Florida is projected to gain two seats in Congress. Together, Ohio and Pennsylvania are projected to lose three seats in Congress. In Florida, Republican Rick Scott leads Florida CFO Alex Sink by 0.6 percentage points in the latest Real Clear Politics average.  Ohio Governor Ted Strickland (D) is facing a stiff challenge from former Congressman John Kasich (R).  Kasich leads Strickland by 5 percentage points in the latest Real Clear Politics average.  And in Pennsylvania, Republicans are likely to win this open race as Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) leads Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D) by 10.5 percentage points in the latest Real Clear Politics average.

Georgia – Georgia is expected to gain one seat in Congress in 2011.  Representatives Jim Marshall (D), John Barrow (D), and Sanford Bishop (D) represent districts where Republicans are competitive in this election cycle and cycle and in previous election cycles.  The governor’s race remains close between former Representative Nathan Deal (R) and former Governor Roy Barnes (D).  Deal leads by 8 percentage points in the latest Real Clear Politics average.  A victory by Deal could cause major problems for Representatives Marshall, Barrow, and Bishop, as their districts could be redrawn to favor Republicans.

Iowa/South Carolina – Iowa and South Carolina hold the first and the third Republican nominating contests for president in 2012.  Republicans are poised to defeat incumbent Chet Culver (D) in Iowa; and State Representative Nicky Haley (R) won a high profile Republican primary with the support of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  Should either of them run for President, Haley’s support will be crucial in an important and early nominating contest.  Additionally, South Carolina is projected to gain one seat in Congress and Iowa is projected to lose one seat in Congress.  While Iowa’s Congressional districts are drawn by an independent commission, South Carolina could easily move the lines to make an already conservative state solidly Republican.

Illinois/ Michigan – Michigan and Illinois are usually favorable states to Democrats.  Vice President Al Gore, Senator John Kerry, and President Barack Obama all carried these states in the last three presidential elections.  Both currently have Democratic governors.  Yet in Illinois, Governor Pat Quinn (D) trails State Senator Bill Brady (R) by 2 percentage points in the latest Real Clear Politics average.  And, in Michigan, Businessman Rick Scott (R) is coasting to victory against Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) – leading by 18 percentage points in the latest Real Clear Politics average.  Michigan and Illinois are both projected to lose one seat in Congress next year.  Republican wins in both of these states will have a major impact on the partisan profile of these delegations. 

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