Several weeks ago, we took a look at some of the most competitive Senate races across the country and broke down where the battle for control of the U.S. Senate will take place.  A lot has changed since then.

We noted that 12 Senate races currently had a candidate who led by less than eight percentage points in the Real Clear Politics polling average.   And of those 12 races, eight had a candidate leading by less than four percentage points – within the margin of error in polling.

Today, 14 races showcase a candidate leading by less than 10 percentage points.  Of those, seven races have a candidate leading by less than five percentage points – within the margin of error in polling.

Seven races should now be categorized as the most competitive in the country.  They include Wisconsin, Illinois, California, Washington, Florida, Colorado, and Nevada.  The leading candidate in these races leads by less than three percentage points according to the latest Real Clear Politics polling average. And while some of the best political forecasters rate some of these races differently, these races will determine what party controls the Senate next year.

In Wisconsin and Illinois, Senator Russ Feingold (D) and Representative Mark Kirk (R) lead their opponents by one percentage point according to the most recent Real Clear Politics polling average.  In Washington, Republican Dino Rossi has taken the lead over Senator Patty Murray, and now leads by 2.3 percentage points.  Previously, Senator Murray led by 3.5 percent points – a 5.8 percentage swing in the race in favor of Rossi.

Missouri and North Carolina showcase a candidate leading just above the margin of error in polling (6.7 percent and 7.7 percent respectively).  These are two races to monitor down the stretch.

And finally, New Hampshire, Ohio, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky are races that continue to solidify in favor of one candidate.  In each race, the leading candidate is ahead by eight percentage points or more in the latest Real Clear Politics polling average.

So what does all of this mean? Republicans have a legitimate shot of taking control of the Senate in November.  The most recent polling in almost all of these races favors the Republican candidate over the Democratic candidate.  Of the seven most competitive Senate races list above – all of them are held by Democrats except one (Florida).  Of the five races that continue to solidify in favor of one candidate, a Republican candidate leads in all of them except one (Connecticut).

Last week, the GOP took an unprecedented 10-point lead on the generic ballot – the largest lead in Gallup’s history of polling this question.  The Washington Post/ABC News poll, Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, and Rasmussen Reports also showed the GOP leading on the generic ballot.  This could be an indication of which party wins those highly competitive Senate races in November.

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