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As we gear up for an exciting day at the races in November, the battle for control of the U.S. Senate is as competitive as it’s been in a long time.  Two of the best political forecasters, Real Clear Politics and Cook Political Report currently rate several Senate races as competitive.  Rasmussen Reports has polled on several races that confirm this current trend.

Twelve Senate races currently have a candidate who leads by less than eight percentage points, according to the most recent Real Clear Politics polling average.  Of those 12 races, eight currently have a candidate leading by less than four percentage points, usually within the margin of error in polling. 

The Senate races in Colorado, Florida, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Nevada are rated as “Toss Ups” by Real Clear Politics, Cook Political Report, and Rasmussen Reports.  These should currently be considered the most competitive Senate races in the Country. 

In Colorado, Weld District Attorney Ken Buck (R) currently leads appointed Senator Michael Bennet (D) by 0.7 percent. 

The battle for the Senate is unique in Florida, as there are currently three candidates with high name recognition likely to be on the ballot.  Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) narrowly leads Governor Charlie Crist (I) and Representative Kendrick Meeks (D) by 1 percentage point. 

In Wisconsin, Senator Russ Feingold (D) leads his opponent, Ron Johnson (R), by 2 percentage points.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) is in a similar situation, leading his opponent, former State Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R) by 2 percentage points. 

The Illinois Senate races pits Representative Mark Kirk (R) and State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) against each other.  The dynamics of this race are fascinating, as President Barack Obama once held this seat.  Representative Kirk currently leads by 2.3 percentage points according to the most recent Real Clear Politics average. 

California, Ohio and Washington will also be hosts to three very competitive races.  However, Real Clear Politics, Cook Political Report, and Rasmussen Reports rate the races differently.  In Ohio, former Representative Rob Portman holds an advantage of 2.7% over Lt. Governor Lee Fisher in the most recent Real Clear Politics polling average.  Real Clear Politics and Cook Political Report rate the contest as a “Toss Up,” while Rasmussen Reports gives a slight edge to Portman with a “Lean Republican” rating. 

Senators Barbara Boxer (D) and Patty Murray (D) both lead their opponents by 3.5 percent points in the most recent Real Clear Politics polling average, and both races are rated as “Toss Ups” by Real Clear Politics and Cook Political Report.  Rasmussen Reports gives them both an advantage with a “Lean Democrat” rating.

Pennsylvania, Missouri, Kentucky, and New Hampshire are races to continue to monitor, but polling indicates that each is becoming slightly less competitive. 

What is clearer today, Democrats continue to face an uphill climb.  Gallup’s latest 2010 congressional voting preference shows half of registered voters will vote for a Republican.  And according to Rasmussen Reports latest Generic Congressional Ballot, Republicans lead 48 percent to 36 percent.  These two polls could be the indicator on what direction these “Toss Up” Senate races take over the final stretch of the campaign. 

Learn how DDC Advocacy can help you prepare your organization for the upcoming elections with our GOTV website and GOTVApp for Facebook!

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