We are now entering the homestretch of the 2010 elections.  Labor Day is usually considered the official kickoff of the fall campaigns.  With Labor Day now behind us, here is an overview 50 days before Election Day.

Midwest, Mountain West, Pennsylvania, and California matter the most.

Republicans are optimistic about winning in November.  To do so, they will need to perform well in the Midwest, Mountain West, Pennsylvania, and California.  This should be considered the battleground of the 2010 election.  Of the 49 House seats currently rated as a “Toss Up” by the Cook Political Report, 51 percent are from these areas.  Real Clear Politics currently rates 35 House seats as “Toss Ups” and 46 percent of them are located in these geographical areas and only one Republican seat makes this list.

California, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, and Minnesota will host six of the most competitive gubernatorial races in November.  The Republican candidate leads in five of these six races by an average of 6.38 percent.  In Minnesota, the leading candidate is a Democrat.  Republicans are coasting to easy victories in Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania —states that currently have a Democratic governor.

California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, and Wisconsin will host five of the most competitive Senate races in November.  Democrats hold insignificant leads in three of these five races (California, Nevada, and Wisconsin).  At the beginning of this cycle, most analysts predicted the Senate races in Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania would be competitive races; however, the Republican candidate in each race continues to solidify their lead.

Does the generic ballot matter?

On August 30th, the GOP took an unprecedented 10-point lead on the generic ballot—the largest lead in Gallup’s history of polling this question.  Then on September 7th, the Gallup showed both parties tied at 46 percent in the generic ballot for Congress.   A Washington Post/ABC News Poll showed Republicans leading by 13 percentage points among likely voters and Rasmussen Reports showed Republicans leading by 12 percentage points among likely voters.  Voters are clearly more inclined to vote for a Republican candidate, as the Real Clear Politics polling average of the generic ballot shows Republicans favored by 6.4 percentage points.

Most political forecasters believe the GOP will retake control of the House.  What about the Senate?

Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia predicts Republicans will win 47 seats in November.   Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report predicts Republicans will win 40 seats in November.  Stu Rothernberg of the Rothernberg Political Report predicts the GOP can gain between 37–42 seats.  Control for the Senate remains in play.

What does all of this mean?

All polls indicate that voters are more likely to vote for a Republican.  The economy continues to be the number one issue on the minds of voters with the unemployment rate at 9.6 percent.  The Republican base is more motivated to vote than the Democratic base.  Most voters disapprove of President Obama, which makes most people believe that Democrats in Congress will suffer for this.

On the other hand, money matters.   The campaign arms of the Democratic Party hold a cash advantage over their Republican counterparts—meaning they will likely have more resources to help their candidates down the stretch.  And while polls show President Obama’s approval rating as down, he performed well in the Midwest, Mountain West, California, and Pennsylvania—carrying most of these states in 2008.      

Stay tuned for more election news as it happens!

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